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Just 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or a cause of the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?

It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

A reversion to average might be the greatest opponent they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he showed during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.